Svenska Handelsbanken AB, Sweden’s third biggest bank by market value, may see its public credit rating lowered if the fallout from the country’s property crisis continues to deepen.
That’s the assessment of Moody’s Investors Service, which late on Friday lowered the lender’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable owing to its relatively high exposure to the real estate sector.
The Stockholm-based lender has a “very significant” 29% of its loan book exposed to the real estate sector, according to Moody’s. While the ratings firm expects the bank to demonstrate resilience to the ongoing crisis, it said that “deeper and more meaningful system-wide stress in the sector would have a more tangible impact.”
Read more: Swedish Home Prices Continue Downward Trend as Rate Hikes Bite
The Nordic nation has been home to one of the world’s worst property routs, with private home prices expected to decline until they’re about 20% below the peak set in early 2022. In the commercial sector, landlords are racing to refinance a $17 billion wall of maturing bond debt over the next 18 months, which is putting pressure on lenders such as Handelsbanken to plug the financing gap.
“Handelsbanken’s greater exposure to the sector makes it more sensitive to a downside scenario and drives the negative outlooks on its LT deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings,” Moody’s analysts said.
In the same rating assessment, Moody’s affirmed the Aa2 ratings of Handelsbanken along with those of peers SEB AB and Swedbank AB. The ratings firm said that is expects all of the large Swedish banks to be “broadly resilient” to the challenges in the real estate sector.
Read More: Swedish Banks Can Withstand Real Estate Collapse, SEB Says
