Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward the central bank’s 2% target despite “real progress” curbing price pressures in recent months.
“I’m just not convinced that inflation is on some smooth glide path down to 2%,” Barkin said at an event in Westminster, South Carolina following the release of data on Tuesday showing inflation broadly slowed in October. The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.2% from September, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed, unchanged from the previous month.
“The inflation numbers have come down, but much of the drop has been partial reversal of Covid-era price spikes, which were driven by elevated demand and supply shortages,” Barkin said. “Shelter and shelter inflation remain higher than historic levels, so does services inflation.”
The Richmond Fed chief said the central bank is headed in the right direction, but recent data “shows an economy that seems remarkably resilient.”
Barkin said he was comfortable supporting keeping rates on hold at the last Fed meeting, with rates restrictive and financial conditions tightening, echoing remarks he made at an event in New Orleans last week. Fed officials kept their benchmark lending rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5%.
Still, “businesses aren’t going to back down from prices until they have to,” which may require slower growth, he said. “I do see some sort of slowdown.”
Policymakers will meet again on Dec. 12-13. Investors saw little chance of another Fed rate hike, and those odds fell to near zero after Tuesday’s inflation report.
