The Nuggets drew first blood in the 2023 NBA Finals, taking a 1-0 series lead against the Heat at home by way of a 104-93 game.
Denver kept Miami at arm's length for much of the game as neither team shot all that well from the perimeter. However, Nikola Jokic was in control of the entire game, carving up different Heat defensive alignments to a triple double with a 27 points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists.
Can the Heat find answers on offense to deal with the Nuggets firepower?
Here are the odds for Game 2:
Heat vs. Nuggets odds, spread and total
Heat vs. Nuggets prediction and pick
Miami ended up shooting a decent percentage from three, 13-of-39, but a lot of those makes came in the fourth quarter as the team tried to make a late rally. The Heat only got to the free throw line twice, the lowest postseason mark in NBA Playoff history. Overall, this was an inefficient outing from the Heat offense, headlined by the team's wings failing to cash in from three and Jimmy Butler's lack of aggressiveness after he only took 14 shots in Game 1.
I do believe that we see a more aggressive Heat offensive game plan that revolves around getting Butler downhill and to the free throw line. While Bam Adebayo put up a ton of points, it's not the best path forward for the team for him to take 25 shots. I see Miami looking to use Adebayo as a facilitator more (he had five assists in Game 1) and for the Heat to try and unlock more floor spacing with a player like Kevin Love entering the rotation for Cody Zeller.
I expect an uptick in offense for Miami, but the Nuggets should see some positive regression as well. Denver shot 51% from the field but much of that damage came at the rim, shooting 81% in the restricted area. The team posted a sub-30% three-point percentage and even a few more makes turns this into a massive Denver offensive performance.
The Nuggets have counters to anything the Heat can throw out them on defense. A zone defense will not work with Jokic in the middle either getting easy looks at the rim or kicking out to elite floor spacers. The Heat don't have the size to challenge Michael Porter Jr.'s pull up jumper or Aaron Gordon's size, nor can they keep up with Jamal Murray's control of the pick-and-roll with Jokic.
The total dropped four points after the game went under in Game 1, but I see that as an overreaction. I expect both offenses to round into form and we see this game go over the lower total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
