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What does a 30 percent chance of rain actually mean on the weather forecast?
What does a 30 percent chance of rain actually mean on the weather forecast?
Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.
1970-01-01 08:00
Romelu Lukaku undergoes Roma medical as Chelsea finalise loan fee
Romelu Lukaku undergoes Roma medical as Chelsea finalise loan fee
Chelsea have finalised an agreement with Roma for the loan of Romelu Lukaku, who will reunite with Jose Mourinho in the Italian capital after undergoing a medical.
1970-01-01 08:00
Broadway star quits US musical about Tiananmen protests during China tour
Broadway star quits US musical about Tiananmen protests during China tour
A Broadway star has withdrawn from a musical about the Tiananmen Square protests weeks before its debut in the US -- while he is on a concert tour in China.
1970-01-01 08:00
Global shares close in on worst month so far this year
Global shares close in on worst month so far this year
By Naomi Rovnick and Ankur Banerjee LONDON, SINGAPORE Global equities edged up on Wednesday as data suggested U.S.
1970-01-01 08:00
Looming Australian Strikes Still Not Fazing Asian LNG Buyers
Looming Australian Strikes Still Not Fazing Asian LNG Buyers
North Asian liquefied natural gas buyers aren’t yet moving to prepare for potential supply disruptions caused by expected
1970-01-01 08:00
Arsenal, Chelsea & Tottenham interested in Ansu Fati
Arsenal, Chelsea & Tottenham interested in Ansu Fati
Barcelona are looking to loan out Ansu Fati, with Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham all interested in such a deal.
1970-01-01 08:00
Baby Alien goes viral for his reaction to Ari Alectra reveal in Fan Van video
Baby Alien goes viral for his reaction to Ari Alectra reveal in Fan Van video
TikTok star 'Baby Alien' has gone viral on social media following his emotional reaction to a video featuring him and model Ari Alectra. Baby Alien, who has more than 625,000 followers on Instagram alone, appeared on the The Fan Bus channel earlier this month where he confessed that he was still a virgin. The idea of The Fan Bus is to connect fans with their favourite OnlyFans models and let nature take its course. As the name would suggest all their content is filmed in a van. However, the account has gained a significant amount of interest since Baby Alien appeared on there with his story now being viewed more than 1.5 million times. There was so much interest that it saw an unprecedented influx of women offering to sleep with him and take his virginity. Yet on August 26th, Fan Bus selected OnlyFans model Ari Alectra to be the one to tell Baby Alien that he was going to lose his virginity that day. In the clip, Baby Alien is told that they believed Alectra was serious about sleeping with him to which he had an excited response. What he didn't realise was that Alectra was actually hiding in the back of the van waiting to surprise him. Alien was soon overcome with emotion and ran out of the van and started crying before being consoled by Alectra and told what was happening to him was real. @thefanvan_ It finally happened #fanbus #busconfessions #trueconfessions #thefanbus #hookupstory At this point, we should point out that Baby Alien does have an obscenely long tongue and does make some suggestive actions as to what he can do with it. We'll leave that to your imagination. The subsequent video has been viewed 1.2 million times with many more than delighted for Baby Alien's happy ending. One person said: "Bro couldn’t believe it." Another wrote: "I would have cried too man." A third added: "dude went through a journey of emotions." Baby Alien's popularity has stemmed from his social media content which mostly consist of lifestyle and comedy skit videos. Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.
1970-01-01 08:00
Premier League London derby table - 2023/24
Premier League London derby table - 2023/24
The 2023/24 Premier League London derby table.
1970-01-01 08:00
Xi Demands Answers About Flood Deaths as Five Detained for Lying
Xi Demands Answers About Flood Deaths as Five Detained for Lying
Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for a probe into flooding at a work site in the southwest that
1970-01-01 08:00
Italy’s Meloni Softens Rhetoric on Banks, Says China Ties Solid
Italy’s Meloni Softens Rhetoric on Banks, Says China Ties Solid
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni softened her tone on plans to impose a windfall tax on banks and
1970-01-01 08:00
Saudi Jet Lessor Aims to Double Fleet After StanChart Deal
Saudi Jet Lessor Aims to Double Fleet After StanChart Deal
Saudi Arabian jet lessor AviLease is seeking to double its fleet by 2030, supported by its owner, the
1970-01-01 08:00
USMNT's Gregg Berhalter reveals updated situation with Gio Reyna
USMNT's Gregg Berhalter reveals updated situation with Gio Reyna
Gregg Berhalter provides insight on the awkward situation with Gio Reyna.
1970-01-01 08:00
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